In 11th Annual Feldstein Lecture, Katherine Baicker
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Latest Volumes of NBER's Macroeconomics Annual
and Tax Policy and the Economy Are Now Available
In the NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018, researchers examine the relative safety of the U.S. financial sector today and before the last financial crisis; effects of the crisis on the perceived risk, and possible propagation of large, rare shocks; finite-horizon forward planning compared with rational expectations; changes in the manufacturing sector and employment among prime-aged Americans; "factorless income"; and the effects of border adjustment taxes.
In Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 33, the researchers use asset pricing to value implicit fiscal debts and account for risk properties; study the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on the behavior of corporations; investigate whether pre-announced consumption tax changes affect the timing of durable goods purchases; and examine "tax equivalences" and return-free tax filing.
In Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 33, the researchers use asset pricing to value implicit fiscal debts and account for risk properties; study the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on the behavior of corporations; investigate whether pre-announced consumption tax changes affect the timing of durable goods purchases; and examine "tax equivalences" and return-free tax filing.
New NBER Research
19 August 2019
How Unions Overcome The Free-Rider Problem
One of the benefits of union membership is assistance in defending against employment-related lawsuits. In a study of UK teachers, Richard Murphy finds that for every five media stories in a region alleging abuses by teachers, teachers in the region are 2.2 percentage points more likely to be union members in the subsequent year.
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16 August 2019
Long-Run Weather Forecasting Benefits the Rural Poor
Mark R. Rosenzweig and Christopher R. Udry find that in areas of India where long-term weather forecasts are accurate, investment, migration and rural wages respond to forecasts. They estimate that improved weather forecasting in other parts of the country could save billions of rupees annually.
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15 August 2019
The Changing Structure of American Innovation
Division of innovative labor between research universities and large corporations over the last three decades may have raised the volume of science by universities but it has slowed the transformation of that knowledge into novel products and processes,Ashish Arora, Sharon Belenzon, Andrea Patacconi, and Jungkyu Suh find.
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More Research
NBER in the News
Does research influence policy design?
Mint (India)
August 19, 2019
Read the Research
New studies challenge the claim that black students are sent to special ed too much
The Hechinger Report
August 19, 2019
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'The right to vote is our most fundamental right': Stacey Abrams
ABC News
August 18, 2019
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Immigrant-owned businesses contribute billions to US economy
Axios
August 17, 2019
Read the Research
A recession will come. How bad will it be?
The Washington Post
August 16, 2019
Read the Research
Mint (India)
August 19, 2019
Read the Research
New studies challenge the claim that black students are sent to special ed too much
The Hechinger Report
August 19, 2019
Read the Research
'The right to vote is our most fundamental right': Stacey Abrams
ABC News
August 18, 2019
Read the Research
Immigrant-owned businesses contribute billions to US economy
Axios
August 17, 2019
Read the Research
A recession will come. How bad will it be?
The Washington Post
August 16, 2019
Read the Research
View all news
The NBER Reporter
Accelerated by Policy, China's Population Is Rapidly Aging,
Giving Rise to Multiple Social and Economic Challenges
China's family planning policies have led to a dramatic decline in total fertility, and average life expectancy at birth has increased steadily, from 57.6 years in 1969 to 76.4 in 2017. Research on what such trends mean for the health and well-being of elderly Chinese is featured in the current issue of the free, quarterly NBER Reporter. This issue of The Reporter also includes articles by NBER researchers about their work on the efficacy of the sustainable investing proposition, the economics of Fair Trade, the work of NBER Economic Fluctuations and Growth Program affiliates, and the labor market effects of the business cycle.
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The NBER Digest
Are Veterans Highly Represented in Public-Sector Jobs
Due to Preferential Hiring or Are They Predisposed?
Men who were of draft age during the Vietnam War find that those who were subject to call-up due to selection of their birthdates in the draft lottery were more likely to later hold jobs in the executive branch of the federal government, a study featured in the current edition of the NBER Digest finds. Also in the August Digest are summaries of studies documenting outcomes for children of the Perry Preschool Project participants, analyzing the stock market wealth effect and analyzing the $500 million bond issuance in the private sector in emerging markets, and gauging the impact of workers’ wage demands when employees understand their company is highly leveraged, and investigating inflation of China’s GDP growth statistics.
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Bulletin on Health
Penicillin’s Introduction in Post-World War II Italy
Greatly Reduced Mortality and Regional Disparities
The summer issue of the Bulletin on Health features a study of the distributional impact of penicillin’s introduction on mortality in Italy following World War II. Researchers find that mortality rates for penicillin-sensitive causes of death fell by 58 percent, relative to the mean in earlier years. Furthermore, penicillin’s introduction reduced the dispersion of penicillin-sensitive mortality rates across regions by 68 percent, explaining 40 percent of all-cause convergence over this period.
Also featured in the summer issue of the Bulletin on Health are studies of the effects of heating costs on winter deaths, and the effects of California’s change in vaccine laws on vaccination and medical exemption rates.
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Bulletin on Retirement and Disability
The Insurance and Liquidity Value
of Social Security Survivors Benefits?
In 2015, the Social Security program paid over $95 billion in survivors benefits to 4.2 million surviving spouses. Research that is the first to explore the protective role of survivors benefit receipt against the short-run financial consequences of a spousal death finds that attaining benefit eligibility is associated with a 34-percentage point increase in Social Security receipt and a 3.1-percentage point decline in labor force participation. Also summarized in this first issue of the free Bulletin on Retirement and Disability: research that estimates the total value of Great Recession-induced disability insurance (DI) awards and a study of the effects of DI awards on the financial outcomes of applicants.
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1939-2019
NBER President Emeritus
Memorial Service
Harvard Memorial Church
September 14, 2019, 1 pm
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