NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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NBER Papers on International Finance and Macroeconomics Program

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2020
w27877 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Veronika Penciakova
Nick Sander

COVID-19 and SME Failures
w27873 Jan Bena
Serdar Dinc
Isil Erel

The International Propagation of Economic Downturns Through Multinational Companies: The Real Economy Channel
w27871 Mara Faccio
John J. McConnell

Impediments to the Schumpeterian Process in the Replacement of Large Firms
w27858 Milton Harris
Christian Opp
Marcus Opp

The Aggregate Demand for Bank Capital
w27855 Alexander Chudik
Kamiar Mohaddes
M. Hashem Pesaran
Mehdi Raissi
Alessandro Rebucci

A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model
w27847 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Tony Zhang

The Economics of Currency Risk
w27844 Kimberly A. Berg
Nelson C. Mark

Uncertainty, Long-Run, and Monetary Policy Risks in a Two-Country Macro Model
w27841 Anand Chopra
Michael B. Devereux
Amartya Lahiri

Pandemics Through the Lens of Occupations
w27840 Pol Antràs
Stephen J. Redding
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Globalization and Pandemics
w27831 Fernando Broner
Alberto Martin
Jaume Ventura

On Public Spending and Economic Unions
w27826 Eduardo Dávila
Optimal Financial Transaction Taxes
w27819 Refet S. Gürkaynak
A. Hakan Kara
Burçin Kısacıkoğlu
Sang Seok Lee

Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior
w27806 David O. Argente
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Munseob Lee

Measuring the Cost of Living in Mexico and the US
w27800 Bernardo Candia
Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents
w27794 Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Giovanni L. Violante

The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S.
w27786 Zhengyang Jiang
Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt
w27772 Fernando Broner
Alberto Martin
Lorenzo Pandolfi
Tomas Williams

Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows
w27770 Yazan Al-Karablieh
Evangelos Koumanakos
Stefanie Stantcheva

Clearing the Bar: Improving Tax Compliance for Small Firms through Target Setting
w27746 Kristin Forbes
Ida Hjortsoe
Tsvetelina Nenova

International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through
w27744 Alexandr Kopytov
Nikolai Roussanov
Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

Cheap Thrills: the Price of Leisure and the Global Decline in Work Hours
w27739 Julien Acalin
Alessandro Rebucci

Global Business and Financial Cycles: A Tale of Two Capital Account Regimes
w27731 Francisco J. Buera
Joseph P. Kaboski
Martí Mestieri
Daniel G. O'Connor

The Stable Transformation Path
w27708 Anusha Chari
Peter Blair Henry
Hector Reyes

The Baker Hypothesis
w27698 Kristin J. Forbes
The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy
w27691 Michael D. Bordo
Joseph G. Haubrich

Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve
w27687 Diego Rojas
Carlos A. Vegh
Guillermo Vuletin

The Macroeconomic Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from a Narrative Approach
w27682 Zhengyang Jiang
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Hanno Lustig

Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle
w27675 Anusha Chari
Jennifer S. Rhee

The Return to Capital in Capital-Scarce Countries
w27654 Olivier Jeanne
Jeongwon Son

To What Extent Are Tariffs Offset By Exchange Rates?
w27652 Matteo Cacciatore
Nora Traum

Trade Flows and Fiscal Multipliers
w27648 Irem Demirci
Miguel A. Ferreira
Pedro Matos
Clemens Sialm

How Global is Your Mutual Fund? International Diversification from Multinationals
w27647 Andres Drenik
Diego Perez

Domestic Price Dollarization in Emerging Economies
w27639 Alok Johri
Shahed Khan
César Sosa-Padilla

Interest Rate Uncertainty and Sovereign Default Risk
w27634 Sarah Allen
Srđjan Čapkun
Ittay Eyal
Giulia Fanti
Bryan A. Ford
James Grimmelmann
Ari Juels
Kari Kostiainen
Sarah Meiklejohn
Andrew Miller
Eswar Prasad
Karl Wüst
Fan Zhang

Design Choices for Central Bank Digital Currency: Policy and Technical Considerations
w27630 Alessandro Barattieri
Matteo Cacciatore

Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks
w27627 Roberto Perotti
Understanding the German Criticism of the Target System and the Role of Central Bank capital
w27615 Robin Greenwood
Samuel G. Hanson
Jeremy C. Stein
Adi Sunderam

A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
w27589 Andrés Fernández
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Does the Commodity Super Cycle Matter?
w27586 Martin Ellison
Sang Seok Lee
Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke

The Ends of 30 Big Depressions
w27547 Ricardo Correa
Linda S. Goldberg

Bank Complexity, Governance, and Risk
w27526 Dani Rodrik
Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-wing Populism
w27500 Mikhail Chernov
Drew D. Creal
Peter Hördahl

Sovereign Credit and Exchange Rate Risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Local Currency Bonds
w27491 Ricardo Correa
Wenxin Du
Gordon Y. Liao

U.S. Banks and Global Liquidity
w27482 Francis X. Diebold
Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession
w27474 Matteo Cacciatore
Fabio Ghironi

Trade, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy
w27470 Alexander F. Wagner
Richard J. Zeckhauser
Alexandre Ziegler

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Which Firms Won? Which Lost?
w27461 Efraim Benmelech
Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

The Determinants of Fiscal and Monetary Policies During the Covid-19 Crisis
w27460 Stéphane Auray
Michael B. Devereux
Aurélien Eyquem

Trade Wars, Currency Wars
w27451 Yothin Jinjarak
Rashad Ahmed
Sameer Nair-Desai
Weining Xin
Joshua Aizenman

Pandemic Shocks and Fiscal-Monetary Policies in the Eurozone: COVID-19 Dominance During January - June 2020
w27447 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Reviving the Salter-Swan Small Open Economy Model
w27431 Raj Chetty
John N. Friedman
Nathaniel Hendren
Michael Stepner
The Opportunity Insights Team

How Did COVID-19 and Stabilization Policies Affect Spending and Employment? A New Real-Time Economic Tracker Based on Private Sector Data
w27420 Mario J. Crucini
Mototsugu Shintani
Takayuki Tsuruga

A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate
w27418 David Altig
Scott R. Baker
Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Philip Bunn
Scarlet Chen
Steven J. Davis
Julia Leather
Brent H. Meyer
Emil Mihaylov
Paul Mizen
Nicholas B. Parker
Thomas Renault
Pawel Smietanka
Greg Thwaites

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
w27416 Zhiguo He
Stefan Nagel
Zhaogang Song

Treasury Inconvenience Yields during the COVID-19 Crisis
w27412 Nicolas L. Bottan
Ricardo Perez-Truglia

Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices
w27411 Viral V. Acharya
Soumya Bhadury
Jay Surti

Financial Vulnerability and Risks to Growth in Emerging Markets
w27403 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Philippe Martin
Todd E. Messer

The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis
w27371 Felipe Saffie
Liliana Varela
Kei-Mu Yi

The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows
w27360 Laura Alfaro
Oscar Becerra
Marcela Eslava

EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms
w27352 Alberto Cavallo
Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets
w27350 Farid Farrokhi
Heitor S. Pellegrina

Global Trade and Margins of Productivity in Agriculture
w27343 Sebastian Horn
Carmen M. Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending
w27342 Ralph S. J. Koijen
Motohiro Yogo

Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System
w27339 Jonathan S. Hartley
Alessandro Rebucci

An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies
w27332 Takeo Hoshi
Anil K Kashyap

The Great Disconnect: The Decoupling of Wage and Price Inflation in Japan
w27323 Javier Bianchi
César Sosa-Padilla

Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk
w27305 Xin Liu
Shang-Jin Wei
Yifan Zhou

A Liberalization Spillover: From Equities to Loans
w27289 Michael Barnett
Greg Buchak
Constantine Yannelis

Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty
w27281 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis
w27276 Jungho Lee
Shang-Jin Wei
Jianhuan Xu

The Welfare Cost of a Current Account Imbalance: A "Clean" Effect
w27275 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Gabriel P. Mihalache

Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets
w27272 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel
Stephen Utkus

Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash
w27239 Assaf Razin
Efraim Sadka
Alexander Horst Schwemmer

DEglobalizaion and Social Safety Nets in Post-Covid-19 Era: Textbook Macroeconomic Analysis
w27231 Patrick Augustin
Mikhail Chernov
Lukas Schmid
Dongho Song

A No-Arbitrage Perspective on Global Arbitrage Opportunities
w27228 Luis Felipe Céspedes
Roberto Chang
Andrés Velasco

The Macroeconomics of a Pandemic: A Minimalist Model
w27224 Barthélémy Bonadio
Zhen Huo
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic
w27221 Viral V. Acharya
Raghuram Rajan
Jack Shim

When is Debt Odious? A Theory of Repression and Growth Traps
w27213 Gonzalo Asis
Anusha Chari
Adam Haas

In Search of Distress Risk in Emerging Markets
w27207 Vadim Elenev
Tim Landvoigt
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy?
w27199 Craig Burnside
Mario Cerrato
Zhekai Zhang

Foreign Exchange Order Flow as a Risk Factor
w27193 Anna Stansbury
Lawrence H. Summers

The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis: An Explanation for the Recent Evolution of the American Economy
w27191 Cem Çakmaklı
Selva Demiralp
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Sevcan Yesiltas
Muhammed A. Yildirim

COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks and Capital Flows
w27185 Yothin Jinjarak
Rashad Ahmed
Sameer Nair-Desai
Weining Xin
Joshua Aizenman

Accounting for Global COVID-19 Diffusion Patterns, January-April 2020
w27171 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

China's Model of Managing the Financial System
w27167 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Stephen J. Terry

Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty
w27136 Richard K. Lyons
Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj

What Keeps Stablecoins Stable?
w27134 Laura Alfaro
Ester Faia
Nora Lamersdorf
Farzad Saidi

Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity
w27129 Chang Ma
Shang-Jin Wei

International Equity and Debt Flows: Composition, Crisis, and Controls
w27084 Fabio Ghironi
G. Kemal Ozhan

Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool
w27075 Konrad B. Burchardi
Thomas Chaney
Tarek Alexander Hassan
Lisa Tarquinio
Stephen J. Terry

Immigration, Innovation, and Growth
w26845 Joseph S. Shapiro
The Environmental Bias of Trade Policy
w27067 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher M. Meissner

Original Sin and the Great Depression
w27064 Christoph E. Boehm
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticities
w27048 Laura Alfaro
Ester Faia
Ruth A. Judson
Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk
w27039 Alexander Chudik
M. Hashem Pesaran
Alessandro Rebucci

Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries
w27036 Masahiro Yamada
Takatoshi Ito

Price Discovery and Liquidity Recovery: Forex Market Reactions to Macro Announcements
w27030 Joshua Aizenman
Yothin Jinjarak
Donghyun Park
Huanhuan Zheng

Good-Bye Original Sin, Hello Risk On-Off, Financial Fragility, and Crises?
w27026 J. Carter Braxton
Kyle F. Herkenhoff
Gordon M. Phillips

Can the Unemployed Borrow? Implications for Public Insurance
w27020 Roberto Chang
Andrés Velasco

Economic Policy Incentives to Preserve Lives and Livelihoods
w27009 Zachary A. Bethune
Anton Korinek

Covid-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods
w27004 Marco Bassetto
Thomas J. Sargent

Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy
w27001 Christiane Baumeister
Dimitris Korobilis
Thomas K. Lee

Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions
w26998 Assaf Razin
Alexander Horst Schwemmer

Ageing-Driven Migration and Redistribution: Comparing Policy Regimes
w26997 Miguel Acosta-Henao
Laura Alfaro
Andrés Fernández

Sticky Capital Controls
w26995 Paul R. Bergin
Giancarlo Corsetti

The Macroeconomic Stabilization of Tariff Shocks: What is the Optimal Monetary Response?
w26971 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Ahmed Tahoun

Firm-level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1
w26960 Michael Bailey
Abhinav Gupta
Sebastian Hillenbrand
Theresa Kuchler
Robert J. Richmond
Johannes Stroebel

International Trade and Social Connectedness
w26950 Laura Alfaro
Anusha Chari
Andrew N. Greenland
Peter K. Schott

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
w26939 James S. Cloyne
Òscar Jordà
Alan M. Taylor

Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier
w26935 Gianluca Benigno
Andrew Foerster
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
w26934 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
w26919 Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Felix Kubler
Andrey Polbin
Simon Scheidegger

Pareto-Improving Carbon-Risk Taxation
w26915 Javier Bianchi
Enrique G. Mendoza

A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature
w26908 Matthew Baron
Emil Verner
Wei Xiong

Banking Crises without Panics
w26905 Joshua Aizenman
Hiro Ito

The Political-Economy Trilemma
w26874 Maurice Obstfeld
Harry Johnson's "Case for Flexible Exchange Rates" - 50 Years Later
w26855 Antonio Coppola
Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens
w26851 Kristin J. Forbes
Francis E. Warnock

Capital Flow Waves--or Ripples? Extreme Capital Flow Movements Since the Crisis
w26843 Anusha Chari
The International Market for Corporate Control
w26829 Christoph Boehm
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Convex Supply Curves
w26820 Peter Bednarek
Daniel Marcel te Kaat
Chang Ma
Alessandro Rebucci

Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles: Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms
w26816 Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

A Model of Cryptocurrencies
w26814 Bomin Jiang
Roberto Rigobon
Munther A. Dahleh

Contingent Linear Financial Networks
w26803 Zhen Huo
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Utilization-Adjusted TFP Across Countries: Measurement and Implications for International Comovement
w26798 Jongrim Ha
M. Ayhan Kose
Christopher Otrok
Eswar S. Prasad

Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
w26797 Jordi Galí
Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Guidance, and the Exchange Rate
w26793 Graciela L. Kaminsky
Leandro Medina
Shiyi Wang

The Financial Center Leverage Cycle: Does it Spread Around the World?
w26792 Hanming Fang
Yongqin Wang
Xian Wu

The Collateral Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from China
w26773 Todd M. Hazelkorn
Tobias J. Moskowitz
Kaushik Vasudevan

Beyond Basis Basics: Liquidity Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price
w26760 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Why Is the Euro Punching Below Its Weight?
w26731 Richard Baldwin
Rikard Forslid

Globotics and Development: When Manufacturing is Jobless and Services are Tradable
w26714 Murillo Campello
Gustavo S. Cortes
Fabricio d'Almeida
Gaurav Kankanhalli

Global Effects of the Brexit Referendum: Evidence from US Corporations
w26706 Takatoshi Ito
Kenta Yamada
Misako Takayasu
Hideki Takayasu

Execution Risk and Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets
w26701 Marco Cipriani
Ana Fostel
Daniel Houser

Leverage and Asset Prices: An Experiment.
w26671 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Gabriel P. Mihalache

Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default)
w26667 Harold L. Cole
Dirk Krueger
George J. Mailath
Yena Park

Coalition-Proof Risk Sharing Under Frictions
w26666 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
w26646 Diego Aparicio
Roberto Rigobon

Quantum Prices
w26644 Takatoshi Ito
Tomoyoshi Yabu

Japanese Foreign Exchange Interventions, 1971-2018: Estimating a Reaction Function Using the Best Proxy
w26613 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Deterministic Debt Cycles in Open Economies with Flow Collateral Constraints
w26611 Kyle Handley
Fariha Kamal
Ryan Monarch

Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism
w26609 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Ahmed Tahoun

The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty
2019
w26583 Zhengyang Jiang
Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Mindy Z. Xiaolan

The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle
w26580 Patrick J. Kehoe
Pierlauro Lopez
Virgiliu Midrigan
Elena Pastorino

Asset Prices and Unemployment Fluctuations
w26575 Zhe Geng
Jun Pan

Price Discovery and Market Segmentation in China's Credit Market
w26570 Samara Gunter
Daniel Riera-Crichton
Carlos Vegh
Guillermo Vuletin

Non-Linear Effects of Tax Changes on Output: The Role of the Initial Level of Taxation
w26560 Josh Davis
Cristian Fuenzalida
Alan M. Taylor

The Natural Rate Puzzle: Global Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r*
w26558 Alessandro Rebucci
Chang Ma

Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature
w26545 Hui Tong
Shang-Jin Wei

Endogenous Corporate Leverage Response to a Safer Macro Environment: The Case of Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation
w26538 Lu Zhang
Q-factors and Investment CAPM
w26520 Hui Chen
Zhuo Chen
Zhiguo He
Jinyu Liu
Rengming Xie

Pledgeability and Asset Prices: Evidence from the Chinese Corporate Bond Markets
w26499 Ying Xu
Jennifer Corbett

Using Network Method to Measure Financial Interconnection
w26496 Kristin Forbes
Inflation Dynamics: Dead, Dormant, or Determined Abroad?
w26478 Alejandro Izquierdo
Ruy E. Lama
Juan Pablo Medina
Jorge P. Puig
Daniel Riera-Crichton
Carlos A. Vegh
Guillermo Vuletin

Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Investigation
w26473 Gino Gancia
Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto
Jaume Ventura

A Theory of Economic Unions
w26469 Marco Cipriani
Ana Fostel
Daniel Houser

Endogenous Leverage and Default in the Laboratory
w26464 Yang You
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Redeemable Platform Currencies
w26451 Alessandro Dovis
Rishabh Kirpalani

Rules without Commitment: Reputation and Incentives
w26447 Bilge Erten
Anton Korinek
José Antonio Ocampo

Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence
w26446 Kenichi Ueda
Somnath Sharma

Listing Advantages Around the World
w26435 Josh Davis
Alan M. Taylor

The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns
w26426 Oliver de Groot
Ceyhun Bora Durdu
Enrique G. Mendoza

Approximately Right?: Global v. Local Methods for Open-Economy Models with Incomplete Markets
w26402 Sergio de Ferra
Kurt Mitman
Federica Romei

Household Heterogeneity and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks
w26397 Gianluca Benigno
Huigang Chen
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci
Eric R. Young

Optimal Policy for Macro-Financial Stability
w26396 Alberto Cavallo
Gita Gopinath
Brent Neiman
Jenny Tang

Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy
w26372 Hang Bai
Erica X.N. Li
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

Does Costly Reversibility Matter for U.S. Public Firms?
w26365 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Macroeconomic Frameworks
w26361 Joshua Aizenman
Macroeconomics Challenges and Resilience of Emerging Market Economies
w26359 Marek Kapička
Finn Kydland
Carlos Zarazaga

Exploring The Role of Limited Commitment Constraints in Argentina's "Missing Capital"
w26347 Laura Alfaro
Fabio Kanczuk

Undisclosed Debt Sustainability
w26342 Michael D. Bordo
Pierre Siklos

The Transformation and Performance of Emerging Market Economies Across the Great Divide of the Global Financial Crisis
w26333 Sebastian Edwards
On Latin American Populism, And Its Echoes Around the World
w26314 Michael B. Devereux
Wei Dong
Ben Tomlin

Trade Flows and Exchange Rates: Importers, Exporters and Products
w26311 Isha Agarwal
Grace Weishi Gu
Eswar S. Prasad

China's Impact on Global Financial Markets
w26310 Enrique G. Mendoza
Sergio Villalvazo

FiPIt: A Simple, Fast Global Method for Solving Models with Two Endogenous States & Occasionally Binding Constraints
w26307 Javier Bianchi
Pablo Ottonello
Ignacio Presno

Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk
w26299 Riccardo Colacito
Steven J. Riddiough
Lucio Sarno

Business Cycles and Currency Returns
w26297 Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
U.S. Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers
w26277 Guillermo A. Calvo
Liquidity Deflation and Liquidity Trap under Flexible Prices: Some Microfoundations and Implications
w26266 Paul Bergin
Ling Feng
Ching-Yi Lin

Trade and Firm Financing
w26262 Òscar Jordà
Alan M. Taylor

Riders on the Storm
w26259 Philippe Bacchetta
Eric van Wincoop

Puzzling Exchange Rate Dynamics and Delayed Portfolio Adjustment
w26246 François Fontaine
Julien Martin
Isabelle Mejean

Price Discrimination within and across EMU Markets: Evidence from French Exporters
w26236 Fernando Arce
Julien Bengui
Javier Bianchi

A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation
w26229 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Ricardo Reis

A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis
w26226 Menzie D. Chinn
Hiro Ito

A Requiem for "Blame It on Beijing": Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses
w26218 Nicholas Bloom
Philip Bunn
Scarlet Chen
Paul Mizen
Pawel Smietanka
Gregory Thwaites

The Impact of Brexit on UK Firms
w26214 Pierpaolo Benigno
Linda M. Schilling
Harald Uhlig

Cryptocurrencies, Currency Competition, and the Impossible Trinity
w26213 Dani Rodrik
Putting Global Governance in its Place
w26212 George A. Alessandria
Horag Choi

Entry, Trade, and Exporting over the Cycle
w26201 Assaf Razin
Efraim Sadka
Alexander Horst Schwemmer

Welfare State vs. Market Forces in a Globalization Era
w26199 José Andrée Camarena
Luciana Galeano
Luis Morano
Jorge Puig
Daniel Riera-Crichton
Carlos Vegh
Lucila Venturi
Guillermo Vuletin

Fooled by the Cycle: Permanent versus Cyclical Improvements in Social Indicators
w26198 Łukasz Rachel
Lawrence H. Summers

On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World
w26188 Yan Bai
Keyu Jin
Dan Lu

Misallocation Under Trade Liberalization
w26184 John D. Burger
Francis E. Warnock
Veronica Cacdac Warnock

The Natural Level of Capital Flows
w26166 Cécile Bastidon
Michael Bordo
Antoine Parent
Marc Weidenmier

Towards an Unstable Hook: The Evolution of Stock Market Integration Since 1913
w26141 Jaume Ventura
Sharing a Government
w26129 Eugenio M. Cerutti
Maurice Obstfeld
Haonan Zhou

Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants
w26121 Dong Cheng
Mario J. Crucini
Hyunseung Oh
Hakan Yilmazkuday

Early 20th Century American Exceptionalism: Production, Trade and Diffusion of the Automobile
w26108 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Networks, Barriers, and Trade
w26106 Olivier Coibion
Dimitris Georgarakos
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Maarten van Rooij

How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
w26085 Sebastian Edwards
Change of Monetary Regime, Contracts, and Prices: Lessons from the Great Depression, 1932-1935
w26076 Cristina Arellano
Xavier Mateos-Planas
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

Partial Default
w26071 Christopher L. House
Christian Proebsting
Linda L. Tesar

Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations
w26050 Sebastian Horn
Carmen M. Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

China's Overseas Lending
w26049 Jonas Heipertz
Amine Ouazad
Romain Rancière

The Transmission of Shocks in Endogenous Financial Networks: A Structural Approach
w26046 Andrew Lilley
Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

Exchange Rate Reconnect
w26039 Maurice Obstfeld
Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy
w26032 David W. Berger
Luigi Bocola
Alessandro Dovis

Imperfect Risk-Sharing and the Business Cycle
w26031 Ricardo J. Caballero
Gunes Kamber

On the Global Impact of Risk-off Shocks and Policy-put Frameworks
w26026 Joseba Martinez
Thomas Philippon
Markus Sihvonen

Does a Currency Union Need a Capital Market Union? Risk Sharing via Banks and Markets
w26012 Simon Gilchrist
Vivian Yue
Egon Zakrajšek

US Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets
w26009 Wenxin Du
Benjamin M. Hébert
Amy Wang Huber

Are Intermediary Constraints Priced?
w25996 Rashad Ahmed
Joshua Aizenman
Yothin Jinjarak

Inflation and Exchange Rate Targeting Challenges Under Fiscal Dominance
w25979 Charles W. Calomiris
Mauricio Larrain
Sergio L. Schmukler
Tomas Williams

Search for Yield in Large International Corporate Bonds: Investor Behavior and Firm Responses
w25978 Zhen Huo
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

International Comovement in the Global Production Network
w25965 George A. Alessandria
Shafaat Y. Khan
Armen Khederlarian

Taking Stock of Trade Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China's Pre-WTO Accession
w25934 Joshua Aizenman
Yin-Wong Cheung
Xingwang Qian

The Currency Composition of International Reserves, Demand for International Reserves, and Global Safe Assets
w25909 Joshua Aizenman
Yothin Jinjarak

Hoarding for Stormy Days - Test of International Reserves Providing Financial Buffer Services
w25900 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Loukas Karabarbounis
Rohan Kekre

The Macroeconomics of the Greek Depression
w25890 Graciela L. Kaminsky
Boom-Bust Capital Flow Cycles
w25877 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Dirk Niepelt

On the Equivalence of Private and Public Money
w25868 Alonso de Gortari
Disentangling Global Value Chains
w25839 Chong-En Bai
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Zheng Michael Song

Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics
w25824 Christoph E. Boehm
Aaron Flaaen
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Multinationals, Offshoring and the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing
w25816 Assaf Razin
The Struggle Towards Macroeconomic Stability: Analytical Essay
w25808 Saki Bigio
Galo Nuño
Juan Passadore

A Framework for Debt-Maturity Management
w25804 Stefania Garetto
Lindsay Oldenski
Natalia Ramondo

Multinational Expansion in Time and Space
w25793 Matthias Schlegl
Christoph Trebesch
Mark L.J. Wright

The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt
w25790 Felipe Benguria
Alan M. Taylor

After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade
w25782 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Hélène Rey
Maxime Sauzet

The International Monetary and Financial System
w25775 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Simon C. Rother
Isabel Schnabel

Asset Price Bubbles and Systemic Risk
w25772 Assaf Razin
Efraim Sadka

Welfare State, Inequality, and Globalization: Role of International-capital-flow Direction
w25767 Aaron B. Flaaen
Ali Hortaçsu
Felix Tintelnot

The Production Relocation and Price Effects of U.S. Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines
w25765 Paul R. Bergin
Giancarlo Corsetti

Beyond Competitive Devaluations: The Monetary Dimensions of Comparative Advantage
w25754 Wei Chen
Xilu Chen
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Zheng Song

A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts
w25744 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel
Stephen Utkus

Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios
w25741 Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
Ahmed Rahman
Alan M. Taylor

Trade, Technology, and the Great Divergence
w25721 J. Scott Davis
Giorgio Valente
Eric van Wincoop

Global Capital Flows Cycle: Impact on Gross and Net Flows
w25714 Charles W. Calomiris
Harry Mamaysky

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes
w25710 J. Scott Davis
Michael B. Devereux

Capital Controls as Macro-prudential Policy in a Large Open Economy
w25685 Adrien Auclert
Will S. Dobbie
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession
w25662 Eduardo Dávila
Cecilia Parlatore

Trading Costs and Informational Efficiency
w25653 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The Total Risk Premium Puzzle
w25646 Katherine Eriksson
Katheryn Russ
Jay C. Shambaugh
Minfei Xu

Trade Shocks and the Shifting Landscape of U.S. Manufacturing
w25613 Katheryn N. Russ
Deborah L. Swenson

Trade Diversion and Trade Deficits: The Case of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement
w25612 Tito Boeri
Andrea Ichino
Enrico Moretti
Johanna Posch

Wage Equalization and Regional Misallocation: Evidence from Italian and German Provinces
w25606 Isaac Baley
Laura Veldkamp
Michael E. Waugh

Might Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade?
w25583 Ana Fostel
John Geanakoplos
Gregory Phelan

Global Collateral and Capital Flows
w25563 George A. Alessandria
Horag Choi

The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate: The J Curve and Trade Costs?
w25549 Marlene Amstad
Zhiguo He

Chinese Bond Market and Interbank Market
w25543 Josefin Meyer
Carmen M. Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo
w25523 Timothy J. Kehoe
Carlos Gustavo Machicado
José Peres-Cajías

The Monetary and Fiscal History of Bolivia, 1960-2017
w25517 Stéphane Auray
Michael B. Devereux
Aurélien Eyquem

Endogenous Trade Protection and Exchange Rate Adjustment
w25494 Barry Eichengreen
Asmaa El-Ganainy
Rui Esteves
Kris James Mitchener

Public Debt Through the Ages
w25469 Emmanuel Farhi
Matteo Maggiori

China vs. U.S.: IMS Meets IPS
w25459 Laura Alfaro
Gonzalo Asis
Anusha Chari
Ugo Panizza

Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets
w25447 Jonathan I. Dingel
Kyle C. Meng
Solomon M. Hsiang

Spatial Correlation, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate
w25426 Barry Eichengreen
From Commodity to Fiat and Now to Crypto: What Does History Tell Us?
w25421 Joao Ayres
Marcio Garcia
Diogo A. Guillén
Patrick J. Kehoe

The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016

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