NBER Papers on Monetary Economics Program

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w27876 Christopher D. Carroll
Edmund Crawley
Jiri Slacalek
Matthew N. White

Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act
w27872 Sebastián Fanelli
Ludwig Straub

A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions
w27864 Ian Dew-Becker
Stefano Giglio

Cross-Sectional Uncertainty and the Business Cycle: Evidence from 40 Years of Options Data
w27861 Erica X.N. Li
Tao Zha
Ji Zhang
Hao Zhou

Stock-bond Return Correlation, Bond Risk Premium Fundamental, and Fiscal-monetary Policy Regime
w27856 Carolin Pflueger
Gianluca Rinaldi

Why Does the Fed Move Markets so Much? A Model of Monetary Policy and Time-Varying Risk Aversion
w27849 Brian Fabo
Martina Jančoková
Elisabeth Kempf
Ľuboš Pástor

Fifty Shades of QE: Conflicts of Interest in Economic Research
w27847 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Tony Zhang

The Economics of Currency Risk
w27844 Kimberly A. Berg
Nelson C. Mark

Uncertainty, Long-Run, and Monetary Policy Risks in a Two-Country Macro Model
w27836 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Edward S. Knotek II
Raphael Schoenle

Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations
w27833 Georgij Alekseev
Safaa Amer
Manasa Gopal
Theresa Kuchler
JW Schneider
Johannes Stroebel
Nils C. Wernerfelt

The Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Small Businesses: Evidence from Owners, Managers, and Employees
w27820 Cosmin L. Ilut
Rosen Valchev

Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers
w27819 Refet S. Gürkaynak
A. Hakan Kara
Burçin Kısacıkoğlu
Sang Seok Lee

Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior
w27815 Qi Chen
Itay Goldstein
Zeqiong Huang
Rahul Vashishtha

Liquidity Transformation and Fragility in the US Banking Sector
w27810 Lin William Cong
Ye Li
Neng Wang

Token-Based Platform Finance
w27809 Simon Gilchrist
Bin Wei
Vivian Z. Yue
Egon Zakrajšek

The Fed Takes on Corporate Credit Risk: An Analysis of the Efficacy of the SMCCF
w27800 Bernardo Candia
Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents
w27794 Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Giovanni L. Violante

The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S.
w27786 Zhengyang Jiang
Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt
w27771 Michele Lenza
Giorgio E. Primiceri

How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020
w27768 Michael Woodford
Effective Demand Failures and the Limits of Monetary Stabilization Policy
w27765 Mohammad Akbarpour
Julien Combe
Yinghua He
Victor Hiller
Robert Shimer
Olivier Tercieux

Unpaired Kidney Exchange: Overcoming Double Coincidence of Wants without Money
w27763 Kaiji Chen
Haoyu Gao
Patrick C. Higgins
Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha

Monetary Stimulus Amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data
w27748 Andrew T. Levin
Arunima Sinha

Limitations on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Forward Guidance in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic
w27747 Jesse Perla
Carolin Pflueger
Michal Szkup

Doubling Down on Debt: Limited Liability as a Financial Friction
w27746 Kristin Forbes
Ida Hjortsoe
Tsvetelina Nenova

International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through
w27742 Andrew B. Abel
Stavros Panageas

Optimal Management of a Pandemic in the Short Run and the Long Run
w27739 Julien Acalin
Alessandro Rebucci

Global Business and Financial Cycles: A Tale of Two Capital Account Regimes
w27733 Qian Chen
Christoffer Koch
Padma Sharma
Gary Richardson

Payments Crises and Consequences
w27732 Saki Bigio
Liyan Shi

Repurchase Options in the Market for Lemons
w27721 Haelim Anderson
Selman Erol
Guillermo Ordoñez

Interbank Networks in the Shadows of the Federal Reserve Act
w27712 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Monetary Policy and Asset Price Overshooting: A Rationale for the Wall/Main Street Disconnect
w27703 Eric Hilt
Matthew S. Jaremski
Wendy Rahn

When Uncle Sam Introduced Main Street to Wall Street: Liberty Bonds and the Transformation of American Finance
w27698 Kristin J. Forbes
The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy
w27693 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?
w27691 Michael D. Bordo
Joseph G. Haubrich

Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve
w27682 Zhengyang Jiang
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Hanno Lustig

Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle
w27676 John Y. Campbell
Nuno Clara
João F. Cocco

Structuring Mortgages for Macroeconomic Stability
w27669 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Marc Giannoni

Medium-Term Money Neutrality and the Effective Lower Bound
w27663 Sebastian Heise
Fatih Karahan
Ayşegül Şahin

The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage-Price Pass-Through
w27657 Martín Uribe
Staggered Price Indexation
w27647 Andres Drenik
Diego Perez

Domestic Price Dollarization in Emerging Economies
w27646 Marco Di Maggio
Amir Kermani
Rodney Ramcharan
Vincent Yao
Edison Yu

The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households
w27642 Amir Kermani
Yueran Ma

Asset Specificity of Non-Financial Firms
w27641 Amir Kermani
Yueran Ma

Two Tales of Debt
w27639 Alok Johri
Shahed Khan
César Sosa-Padilla

Interest Rate Uncertainty and Sovereign Default Risk
w27634 Sarah Allen
Srđjan Čapkun
Ittay Eyal
Giulia Fanti
Bryan A. Ford
James Grimmelmann
Ari Juels
Kari Kostiainen
Sarah Meiklejohn
Andrew Miller
Eswar Prasad
Karl Wüst
Fan Zhang

Design Choices for Central Bank Digital Currency: Policy and Technical Considerations
w27629 Robert P. Bartlett III
Adair Morse

Small Business Survival Capabilities and Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Oakland
w27627 Roberto Perotti
Understanding the German Criticism of the Target System and the Role of Central Bank capital
w27617 Natalie Bachas
Peter Ganong
Pascal J. Noel
Joseph S. Vavra
Arlene Wong
Diana Farrell
Fiona E. Greig

Initial Impacts of the Pandemic on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Linked Income, Spending, and Savings Data
w27610 Michael J. Fishman
Jonathan A. Parker
Ludwig Straub

A Dynamic Theory of Lending Standards
w27559 Antonio Falato
Itay Goldstein
Ali Hortaçsu

Financial Fragility in the COVID-19 Crisis: The Case of Investment Funds in Corporate Bond Markets
w27552 Peter Ganong
Damon Jones
Pascal J. Noel
Fiona E. Greig
Diana Farrell
Chris Wheat

Wealth, Race, and Consumption Smoothing of Typical Income Shocks
w27537 Viral V. Acharya
Lea Borchert
Maximilian Jager
Sascha Steffen

Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector
w27536 Olivier Wang
Iván Werning

Dynamic Oligopoly and Price Stickiness
w27521 Michael Woodford
Yinxi Xie

Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight
w27491 Ricardo Correa
Wenxin Du
Gordon Y. Liao

U.S. Banks and Global Liquidity
w27486 Adrien Auclert
Bence Bardóczy
Matthew Rognlie

MPCs, MPEs and Multipliers: A Trilemma for New Keynesian Models
w27481 Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Andrea Prestipino

Credit Booms, Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy
w27474 Matteo Cacciatore
Fabio Ghironi

Trade, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy
w27464 Jennifer La'O
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

Optimal Monetary Policy in Production Networks
w27461 Efraim Benmelech
Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

The Determinants of Fiscal and Monetary Policies During the Covid-19 Crisis
w27447 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Reviving the Salter-Swan Small Open Economy Model
w27434 Fernando E. Alvarez
Francesco Lippi
Aleksei Oskolkov

The Macroeconomics of Sticky Prices with Generalized Hazard Functions
w27431 Raj Chetty
John N. Friedman
Nathaniel Hendren
Michael Stepner
The Opportunity Insights Team

How Did COVID-19 and Stabilization Policies Affect Spending and Employment? A New Real-Time Economic Tracker Based on Private Sector Data
w27420 Mario J. Crucini
Mototsugu Shintani
Takayuki Tsuruga

A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate
w27418 David Altig
Scott R. Baker
Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Philip Bunn
Scarlet Chen
Steven J. Davis
Julia Leather
Brent H. Meyer
Emil Mihaylov
Paul Mizen
Nicholas B. Parker
Thomas Renault
Pawel Smietanka
Greg Thwaites

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
w27416 Zhiguo He
Stefan Nagel
Zhaogang Song

Treasury Inconvenience Yields during the COVID-19 Crisis
w27406 Francesco Bianchi
Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma

Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
w27399 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Michael Weber

Managing Households' Expectations with Unconventional Policies
w27396 Robin Greenwood
Samuel G. Hanson
Andrei Shleifer
Jakob Ahm Sørensen

Predictable Financial Crises
w27394 Hie Joo Ahn
James D. Hamilton

Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment
w27386 Roberto M. Billi
Jordi Galí

Gains from wage Flexibility and the Zero Lower Bound
w27385 Jordi Galí
Insider-Outsider Labor Markets, Hysteresis and Monetary Policy
w27384 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Does Policy Communication During Covid Work?
w27369 Michael D. Bordo
Andrew T. Levin
Mickey D. Levy

Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve's Policy Strategy and Communications
w27367 Jules H. van Binsbergen
Duration-Based Stock Valuation
w27366 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Fiscal Policy and COVID19 Restrictions in a Demand-Determined Economy
w27355 Mahyar Kargar
Benjamin Lester
David Lindsay
Shuo Liu
Pierre-Olivier Weill
Diego Zúñiga

Corporate Bond Liquidity During the COVID-19 Crisis
w27352 Alberto Cavallo
Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets
w27343 Sebastian Horn
Carmen M. Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending
w27342 Ralph S. J. Koijen
Motohiro Yogo

Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System
w27339 Jonathan S. Hartley
Alessandro Rebucci

An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies
w27332 Takeo Hoshi
Anil K Kashyap

The Great Disconnect: The Decoupling of Wage and Price Inflation in Japan
w27323 Javier Bianchi
César Sosa-Padilla

Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk
w27317 Philippe Andrade
Olivier Coibion
Erwan Gautier
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

No Firm is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms' Aggregate Expectations
w27313 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets
w27308 George-Marios Angeletos
Zhen Huo
Karthik A. Sastry

Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory
w27295 Eric R. Sims
Jing Cynthia Wu

Wall Street vs. Main Street QE
w27272 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel
Stephen Utkus

Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash
w27266 Yan Liu
Jing Cynthia Wu

Reconstructing the Yield Curve
w27258 Yifei Wang
Toni M. Whited
Yufeng Wu
Kairong Xiao

Bank Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Structural Estimation
w27244 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi
Michael J. Mina
James H. Stock

Reopening Scenarios
w27216 Peter Ganong
Pascal J. Noel
Joseph S. Vavra

US Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates During the Pandemic
w27214 Kaiji Chen
Patrick C. Higgins
Tao Zha

Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
w27207 Vadim Elenev
Tim Landvoigt
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy?
w27182 Evan M. Munro
Serena Ng

Latent Dirichlet Analysis of Categorical Survey Expectations
w27171 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

China's Model of Managing the Financial System
w27168 Valentin Haddad
Alan Moreira
Tyler Muir

When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed's Response
w27158 Viral V. Acharya
Matteo Crosignani
Tim Eisert
Christian Eufinger

Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe
w27152 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis
w27141 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending
w27136 Richard K. Lyons
Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj

What Keeps Stablecoins Stable?
w27116 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Sebastian A. Merkel
Yuliy Sannikov

The Fiscal Theory of Price Level with a Bubble
w27112 Francesco Bianchi
Renato Faccini
Leonardo Melosi

Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength
w27095 João Granja
Christos Makridis
Constantine Yannelis
Eric Zwick

Did the Paycheck Protection Program Hit the Target?
w27084 Fabio Ghironi
G. Kemal Ozhan

Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool
w27077 Manuel Adelino
Miguel A. Ferreira
Mariassunta Giannetti
Pedro Pires

Trade Credit and the Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy
w27067 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher M. Meissner

Original Sin and the Great Depression
w27065 Jonathan S. Hartley
Urban Jermann

Should the U.S. Government Issue Floating Rate Notes?
w27056 Victoria Ivashina
Luc Laeven
Enrique Moral-Benito

Loan Types and the Bank Lending Channel
w27051 Christopher Hansman
Harrison Hong
Áureo de Paula
Vishal Singh

A Sticky-Price View of Hoarding
w27044 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a "Covid-19" Shock: A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs
w27036 Masahiro Yamada
Takatoshi Ito

Price Discovery and Liquidity Recovery: Forex Market Reactions to Macro Announcements
w27034 Lydia Cox
Gernot Müller
Ernesto Pastén
Raphael Schoenle
Michael Weber

Big G
w27026 J. Carter Braxton
Kyle F. Herkenhoff
Gordon M. Phillips

Can the Unemployed Borrow? Implications for Public Insurance
w27025 John Y. Campbell
Roman Sigalov

Portfolio Choice with Sustainable Spending: A Model of Reaching for Yield
w27017 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View
w27014 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Advances in Structural Vector Autoregressions with Imperfect Identifying Information
w27013 Michael D. Bauer
Eric T. Swanson

The Fed's Response to Economic News Explains the "Fed Information Effect"
w27004 Marco Bassetto
Thomas J. Sargent

Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy
w27003 Marco Del Negro
Michele Lenza
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

What's up with the Phillips Curve?
w27001 Christiane Baumeister
Dimitris Korobilis
Thomas K. Lee

Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions
w26987 Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma
Serena Ng

COVID-19 and The Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters
w26985 Luigi Bocola
Guido Lorenzoni

Risk Sharing Externalities
w26974 Stavros Panageas
The Implications of Heterogeneity and Inequality for Asset Pricing
w26971 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Ahmed Tahoun

Firm-level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1
w26962 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
w26954 Daniel Lewis
Karel Mertens
James H. Stock

U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak
w26943 Joseph Kopecky
Alan M. Taylor

The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium
w26941 Atif R. Mian
Ludwig Straub
Amir Sufi

The Saving Glut of the Rich and the Rise in Household Debt
w26940 Atif R. Mian
Ludwig Straub
Amir Sufi

Indebted Demand
w26939 James S. Cloyne
Òscar Jordà
Alan M. Taylor

Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier
w26935 Gianluca Benigno
Andrew Foerster
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
w26934 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
w26918 Veronica Guerrieri
Guido Lorenzoni
Ludwig Straub
Iván Werning

Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?
w26908 Matthew Baron
Emil Verner
Wei Xiong

Banking Crises without Panics
w26907 Zhenyu Gao
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

Learning about the Neighborhood
w26903 Erica Jiang
Gregor Matvos
Tomasz Piskorski
Amit Seru

Banking without Deposits: Evidence from Shadow Bank Call Reports
w26894 Anna Cieslak
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

The Economics of the Fed Put
w26881 Adam Guren
Alisdair McKay
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

What Do We Learn From Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics?
w26872 Michael McCracken
Serena Ng

FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research
w26866 Robert J. Barro
José F. Ursúa
Joanna Weng

The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity
w26859 Kris James Mitchener
Gary Richardson

Contagion of Fear
w26855 Antonio Coppola
Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens
w26852 R. Jason Faberman
Andreas I. Mueller
Ayşegül Şahin
Giorgio Topa

The Shadow Margins of Labor Market Slack
w26838 Dean Corbae
Pablo D'Erasmo

Rising Bank Concentration
w26837 Francesco D’Acunto
Ulrike Malmendier
Michael Weber

Gender Roles and the Gender Expectations Gap
w26833 Klaus Adam
Michael Woodford

Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Housing
w26829 Christoph Boehm
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Convex Supply Curves
w26826 Michael D. Cai
Marco Del Negro
Edward P. Herbst
Ethan Matlin
Reca Sarfati
Frank Schorfheide

Online Estimation of DSGE Models
w26820 Peter Bednarek
Daniel Marcel te Kaat
Chang Ma
Alessandro Rebucci

Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles: Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms
w26817 Francesco D’Acunto
Thomas Rauter
Christoph K. Scheuch
Michael Weber

Perceived Precautionary Savings Motives: Evidence from FinTech
w26816 Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

A Model of Cryptocurrencies
w26800 Greg Kaplan
Piotr Zoch

Markups, Labor Market Inequality and the Nature of Work
w26799 Efraim Benmelech
Nitish Kumar
Raghuram Rajan

Secured Credit Spreads
w26797 Jordi Galí
Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Guidance, and the Exchange Rate
w26796 Jordi Galí
Monetary Policy and Bubbles in a New Keynesian Model with Overlapping Generations
w26792 Hanming Fang
Yongqin Wang
Xian Wu

The Collateral Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from China
w26791 Narayana R. Kocherlakota
21st Century Macro
w26778 Olivier Coibion
Dimitris Georgarakos
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Forward Guidance and Household Expectations
w26760 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Why Is the Euro Punching Below Its Weight?
w26756 Ricardo Lagos
Shengxing Zhang

The Limits of onetary Economics: On Money as a Latent Medium of Exchange
w26745 John H. Cochrane
A Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy with Partially-Repaid Long-Term Debt
w26743 Benjamin M. Hébert
Michael Woodford

Neighborhood-Based Information Costs
w26701 Marco Cipriani
Ana Fostel
Daniel Houser

Leverage and Asset Prices: An Experiment.
w26695 Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi
Gustavo S. Cortes
Marc D. Weidenmier

Regional Monetary Policies and the Great Depression
w26689 Anil K. Kashyap
Dimitrios P. Tsomocos
Alexandros P. Vardoulakis

Optimal Bank Regulation In the Presence of Credit and Run-Risk
w26672 David Romer
In Praise of Confidence Intervals
w26671 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Gabriel P. Mihalache

Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default)
w26666 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
w26663 Gary B. Gorton
Private Money Production without Banks
w26657 Lars E.O. Svensson
Monetary Policy Strategies for the Federal Reserve
w26655 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Effects of Fiscal Policy on Credit Markets
w26650 N. Gregory Mankiw
A Skeptic's Guide to Modern Monetary Theory
w26647 Adrien Auclert
Matthew Rognlie
Ludwig Straub

Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in an Estimated HANK Model
w26646 Diego Aparicio
Roberto Rigobon

Quantum Prices
w26630 Jiri Slacalek
Oreste Tristani
Giovanni L. Violante

Household Balance Sheet Channels of Monetary Policy: A Back of the Envelope Calculation for the Euro Area
w26606 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions
w26602 Shang-Jin Wei
Yinxi Xie

Monetary Policy in an Era of Global Supply Chains
w26600 Dennis Egger
Johannes Haushofer
Edward Miguel
Paul Niehaus
Michael W. Walker

General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence from Kenya
w26588 Andreas Fagereng
Martin Blomhoff Holm
Benjamin Moll
Gisle Natvik

Saving Behavior Across the Wealth Distribution: The Importance of Capital Gains
w26586 Ian Martin
Stefan Nagel

Market Efficiency in the Age of Big Data
w26580 Patrick J. Kehoe
Pierlauro Lopez
Virgiliu Midrigan
Elena Pastorino

Asset Prices and Unemployment Fluctuations
w26569 Laura Liu
Hyungsik Roger Moon
Frank Schorfheide

Forecasting with a Panel Tobit Model
w26561 Saki Bigio
Adrien d'Avernas

Financial Risk Capacity
w26560 Josh Davis
Cristian Fuenzalida
Alan M. Taylor

The Natural Rate Puzzle: Global Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r*
w26558 Alessandro Rebucci
Chang Ma

Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature
w26507 Christian vom Lehn
Thomas Winberry

The Investment Network, Sectoral Comovement, and the Changing U.S. Business Cycle
w26501 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Regional Data in Macroeconomics: Some Advice for Practitioners
w26496 Kristin Forbes
Inflation Dynamics: Dead, Dormant, or Determined Abroad?
w26494 Zhiguo He
Paymon Khorrami
Zhaogang Song

Commonality in Credit Spread Changes: Dealer Inventory and Intermediary Distress
w26479 Viral V. Acharya
Björn Imbierowicz
Sascha Steffen
Daniel Teichmann

Does the Lack of Financial Stability Impair the Transmission of Monetary Policy?
w26474 Pascal Michaillat
Emmanuel Saez

Beveridgean Unemployment Gap
w26471 Viral V. Acharya
Guillaume Plantin

Monetary Easing, Leveraged Payouts and Lack of Investment
w26469 Marco Cipriani
Ana Fostel
Daniel Houser

Endogenous Leverage and Default in the Laboratory
w26464 Yang You
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Redeemable Platform Currencies
w26457 Zhenyu Gao
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

Economic Consequences of Housing Speculation
w26450 Laurence M. Ball
Sandeep Mazumder

A Phillips Curve for the Euro Area
w26447 Bilge Erten
Anton Korinek
José Antonio Ocampo

Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence
w26435 Josh Davis
Alan M. Taylor

The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns
w26427 Carlos Garriga
Finn E. Kydland
Roman Šustek

MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model
w26415 Benjamin M. Hébert
Michael Woodford

Rational Inattention when Decisions Take Time
w26413 George-Marios Angeletos
Karthik Sastry

Inattentive Economies
w26402 Sergio de Ferra
Kurt Mitman
Federica Romei

Household Heterogeneity and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks
w26397 Gianluca Benigno
Huigang Chen
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci
Eric R. Young

Optimal Policy for Macro-Financial Stability
w26396 Alberto Cavallo
Gita Gopinath
Brent Neiman
Jenny Tang

Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy
w26372 Hang Bai
Erica X.N. Li
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

Does Costly Reversibility Matter for U.S. Public Firms?
w26365 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Macroeconomic Frameworks
w26351 Stéphane Dupraz
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

A Plucking Model of Business Cycles
w26342 Michael D. Bordo
Pierre Siklos

The Transformation and Performance of Emerging Market Economies Across the Great Divide of the Global Financial Crisis
w26340 Antoine Arnoud
Fatih Guvenen
Tatjana Kleineberg

Benchmarking Global Optimizers
w26337 Guillermo Ordoñez
Facundo Piguillem

Retirement in the Shadow (Banking)
w26324 John V. Leahy
Aditi Thapar

Demographic Effects on the Impact of Monetary Policy
w26323 Ian Dew-Becker
Stefano Giglio
Bryan T. Kelly

Hedging Macroeconomic and Financial Uncertainty and Volatility
w26308 Francesco Bianchi
Thilo Kind
Howard Kung

Threats to Central Bank Independence: High-Frequency Identification with Twitter
w26307 Javier Bianchi
Pablo Ottonello
Ignacio Presno

Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk
w26300 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Harold James
Jean-Pierre Landau

The Digitalization of Money
w26298 Jason R. Donaldson
Giorgia Piacentino

Money Runs
w26290 Carolin Pflueger
Emil Siriwardane
Adi Sunderam

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy
w26284 Fatih Guvenen
Gueorgui Kambourov
Burhanettin Kuruscu
Sergio Ocampo-Diaz
Daphne Chen

Use It or Lose It: Efficiency Gains from Wealth Taxation
w26279 Francesco Bianchi
Leonardo Melosi
Matthias Rottner

Hitting the Elusive Inflation Target
w26262 Òscar Jordà
Alan M. Taylor

Riders on the Storm
w26258 Michael Woodford
Modeling Imprecision in Perception, Valuation and Choice
w26255 Stefan Nagel
Zhengyang Xu

Asset Pricing with Fading Memory
w26249 Jordi Galí
The Effects of a Money-Financed Fiscal Stimulus
w26237 Francesco D’Acunto
Ulrike Malmendier
Juan Ospina
Michael Weber

Exposure to Daily Price Changes and Inflation Expectations
w26236 Fernando Arce
Julien Bengui
Javier Bianchi

A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation
w26229 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Ricardo Reis

A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis
w26219 Max Raskin
Fahad Saleh
David Yermack

How Do Private Digital Currencies Affect Government Policy?
w26218 Nicholas Bloom
Philip Bunn
Scarlet Chen
Paul Mizen
Pawel Smietanka
Gregory Thwaites

The Impact of Brexit on UK Firms
w26214 Pierpaolo Benigno
Linda M. Schilling
Harald Uhlig

Cryptocurrencies, Currency Competition, and the Impossible Trinity
w26198 Łukasz Rachel
Lawrence H. Summers

On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World
w26175 Alisdair McKay
Johannes F. Wieland

Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy
w26165 Stefania Albanesi
Domonkos F. Vamossy

Predicting Consumer Default: A Deep Learning Approach
w26152 Ralph S. J. Koijen
Francois Koulischer
Benoit Nguyen
Motohiro Yogo

Inspecting the Mechanism of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area
w26138 Jules H. van Binsbergen
William F. Diamond
Marco Grotteria

Risk-Free Interest Rates
w26134 Brent Neiman
Joseph S. Vavra

The Rise of Niche Consumption
w26131 Christopher D. Carroll
Jiri Slacalek
Martin Sommer

Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects
w26123 Adrien Auclert
Bence Bardóczy
Matthew Rognlie
Ludwig Straub

Using the Sequence-Space Jacobian to Solve and Estimate Heterogeneous-Agent Models
w26116 Gabriel Ehrlich
John Haltiwanger
Ron Jarmin
David Johnson
Matthew D. Shapiro

Re-engineering Key National Economic Indicators
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Dimitris Georgarakos
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Maarten van Rooij

How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
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Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider

The Short Rate Disconnect in a Monetary Economy
w26098 Michael D. Bordo
Edward S. Prescott

Federal Reserve Structure, Economic Ideas, and Monetary and Financial Policy
w26087 Pamela Giustinelli
Matthew D. Shapiro

SeaTE: Subjective ex ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement
w26071 Christopher L. House
Christian Proebsting
Linda L. Tesar

Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations
w26067 Eric R. Sims
Jing Cynthia Wu

The Four Equation New Keynesian Model
w26057 Susanto Basu
Are Price-Cost Markups Rising in the United States? A Discussion of the Evidence
w26056 Michael T. Belongia
Peter N. Ireland

A Classical View of the Business Cycle
w26053 Lilia Maliar
John B. Taylor

Forward Guidance: Is It Useful Away from the Lower Bound?
w26049 Jonas Heipertz
Amine Ouazad
Romain Rancière

The Transmission of Shocks in Endogenous Financial Networks: A Structural Approach
w26040 Eric R. Sims
Jing Cynthia Wu

Evaluating Central Banks' Tool Kit: Past, Present, and Future
w26039 Maurice Obstfeld
Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy
w26032 David W. Berger
Luigi Bocola
Alessandro Dovis

Imperfect Risk-Sharing and the Business Cycle
w26031 Ricardo J. Caballero
Gunes Kamber

On the Global Impact of Risk-off Shocks and Policy-put Frameworks
w26026 Joseba Martinez
Thomas Philippon
Markus Sihvonen

Does a Currency Union Need a Capital Market Union? Risk Sharing via Banks and Markets
w26012 Simon Gilchrist
Vivian Yue
Egon Zakrajšek

US Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets
w26002 Janice C. Eberly
James H. Stock
Jonathan H. Wright

The Federal Reserve's Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment
w25987 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation
w25977 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Prudential Monetary Policy
w25970 Kimberly A. Berg
Chadwick C. Curtis
Steven Lugauer
Nelson C. Mark

Demographics and Monetary Policy Shocks
w25959 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Plamen T. Nenov
Alp Simsek

Stock Market Wealth and the Real Economy: A Local Labor Market Approach
w25956 David Altig
Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Brent H. Meyer
Nicholas Parker

Surveying Business Uncertainty
w25952 Corina Boar
Virgiliu Midrigan

Markups and Inequality
w25930 Richard K. Crump
Stefano Eusepi
Marc Giannoni
Ayşegül Şahin

A Unified Approach to Measuring u*
w25911 James D. Hamilton
Perspectives on U.S. Monetary Policy Tools and Instruments
w25899 Rishab Guha
Serena Ng

A Machine Learning Analysis of Seasonal and Cyclical Sales in Weekly Scanner Data
w25892 Michael McLeay
Silvana Tenreyro

Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve
w25891 Gary B. Gorton
The Regulation of Private Money
w25887 Jérôme Dugast
Semih Üslü
Pierre-Olivier Weill

A Theory of Participation in OTC and Centralized Markets
w25877 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Dirk Niepelt

On the Equivalence of Private and Public Money
w25874 Fatih Karahan
Benjamin Pugsley
Ayşegül Şahin

Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit
w25869 Nicolas Crouzet
Janice C. Eberly

Understanding Weak Capital Investment: the Role of Market Concentration and Intangibles
w25843 Michael Bailey
Drew M. Johnston
Theresa Kuchler
Johannes Stroebel
Arlene Wong

Peer Effects in Product Adoption
w25820 Davide Debortoli
Jordi Galí
Luca Gambetti

On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint
w25803 Ricardo Lagos
Shengxing Zhang

On Money as a Medium of Exchange in Near-Cashless Credit Economies
w25792 Peter Hooper
Frederic S. Mishkin
Amir Sufi

Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?
w25775 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Simon C. Rother
Isabel Schnabel

Asset Price Bubbles and Systemic Risk
w25769 Daniel L. Greenwald
Martin Lettau
Sydney C. Ludvigson

How the Wealth Was Won: Factors Shares as Market Fundamentals
w25768 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Fiscal Space and the Aftermath of Financial Crises: How It Matters and Why
w25761 Daniel Cooper
María José Luengo-Prado
Jonathan A. Parker

The Local Aggregate Effects of Minimum Wage Increases
w25757 Michael Gelman
Shachar Kariv
Matthew D. Shapiro
Dan Silverman

Rational Illiquidity and Consumption: Theory and Evidence from Income Tax Withholding and Refunds
w25744 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel
Stephen Utkus

Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios
w25743 Roger Farmer
Giovanni Nicolò

Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve
w25720 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Kyle J. Kost

Policy News and Stock Market Volatility
w25718 Paul D. Adams
Stefan Hunt
Christopher Palmer
Redis Zaliauskas

Testing the Effectiveness of Consumer Financial Disclosure: Experimental Evidence from Savings Accounts
w25714 Charles W. Calomiris
Harry Mamaysky

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes
w25707 Andrew Caplin
John V. Leahy

Wishful Thinking
w25698 Adriano A. Rampini
S. Viswanathan
Guillaume Vuillemey

Risk Management in Financial Institutions
w25690 Ravi Bansal
Shane Miller
Dongho Song
Amir Yaron

The Term Structure of Equity Risk Premia
w25686 Richard B. Berner
Stephen G. Cecchetti
Kermit L. Schoenholtz

Stress Testing Networks: The Case of Central Counterparties
w25685 Adrien Auclert
Will S. Dobbie
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession
w25668 Bronson Argyle
Taylor D. Nadauld
Christopher Palmer

Monthly Payment Targeting and the Demand for Maturity
w25667 Zheng Liu
Pengfei Wang
Tao Zha

A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks
w25653 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The Total Risk Premium Puzzle
w25649 Itamar Drechsler
Alexi Savov
Philipp Schnabl

How Monetary Policy Shaped the Housing Boom
w25628 John Grigsby
Erik Hurst
Ahu Yildirmaz

Aggregate Nominal Wage Adjustments: New Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data
w25609 Germán Gutiérrez
Callum Jones
Thomas Philippon

Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy
w25592 Lin William Cong
Zhiguo He
Jiasun Li

Decentralized Mining in Centralized Pools
w25571 Marcus Hagedorn
Iourii Manovskii
Kurt Mitman

The Fiscal Multiplier
w25543 Josefin Meyer
Carmen M. Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo
w25540 Victor Stango
Jonathan Zinman

We are all Behavioral, More or Less: Measuring and Using Consumer-level Behavioral Sufficient Statistics
w25531 Valerie A. Ramey
Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?
w25523 Timothy J. Kehoe
Carlos Gustavo Machicado
José Peres-Cajías

The Monetary and Fiscal History of Bolivia, 1960-2017
w25512 Laurence M. Ball
Sandeep Mazumder

The Nonpuzzling Behavior of Median Inflation
w25511 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Mauricio Ulate

Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures
w25505 Ernest Liu
Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth
w25496 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Maritta Paloviita
Michael Weber

IQ, Expectations, and Choice
w25492 Simon Jäger
Benjamin Schoefer
Josef Zweimüller

Marginal Jobs and Job Surplus: A Test of the Efficiency of Separations
w25482 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations
w25478 Rava Azeredo da Silveira
Michael Woodford

Noisy Memory and Over-Reaction to News
w25477 Ana Babus
Kinda Cheryl Hachem

Markets for Financial Innovation
w25476 Jordi Galí
Luca Gambetti

Has the U.S. Wage Phillips Curve Flattened? A Semi-Structural Exploration
w25470 Ekaterina S. Jardim
Gary Solon
Jacob L. Vigdor

How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? Evidence from Payroll Records in Washington State
w25469 Emmanuel Farhi
Matteo Maggiori

China vs. U.S.: IMS Meets IPS
w25466 Steven J. Davis
John C. Haltiwanger

Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions
w25465 Gabriel Ehrlich
John C. Haltiwanger
Ron S. Jarmin
David Johnson
Matthew D. Shapiro

Minding Your Ps and Qs: Going from Micro to Macro in Measuring Prices and Quantities
w25455 Michael D. Bordo
Andrew T. Levin

Digital Cash: Principles & Practical Steps
w25452 Gary Gorton
Toomas Laarits
Tyler Muir

1930: First Modern Crisis
w25445 Roger E.A. Farmer
Pawel Zabczyk

A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
w25421 Joao Ayres
Marcio Garcia
Diogo A. Guillén
Patrick J. Kehoe

The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016
w25416 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Ragnar E. Juelsrud
Lawrence H. Summers
Ella Getz Wold

Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel

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